An independent think tank · Pakistan
Independent
analysis for a
contested world
The Brain Pakistan publishes long-form strategic assessments on geopolitics, security and the economy, written to be checked, challenged and used.
Latest assessment · November 2026
Squeeze, Siege or Storm
The Taiwan Strait outlook, 2026–2030
3–8%
Chance of an invasion by 2030
20–30%
Chance of a coast-guard “quarantine”
~10%
Of world output lost in year one of a war
Research areas
What we study
01
Geopolitics & security
Great-power competition, the military balance and the flashpoints that could pull whole regions into conflict.
02
South Asia & Pakistan
How Pakistan, India and their neighbours are exposed to shocks that start far from their borders.
03
Law & institutions
What international law and multilateral bodies can, and cannot, settle when interests collide.
04
Economy & energy
Trade routes, supply chains, finance and energy: the money behind the strategy.
How we work
We state what we judge, how likely it is, and what would change our minds.
Key judgements first
The bottom line comes before the background, in plain sentences you can quote.
Likelihoods, labelled honestly
Events get a stated probability range, presented as analytic judgement and never dressed up as a statistical forecast.
Signposts to watch
Every assessment lists the developments that would raise the risk and the ones that would lower it.